Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hunan Corun New Energy Co., Ltd. (600478.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.22 - $22.65$21.23
Multi-Stage$12.75 - $13.99$13.36
Blended Fair Value$17.29
Current Price$6.57
Upside163.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.46%15.81%0.100.090.060.060.060.040.050.050.020.02
YoY Growth--13.88%59.03%-7.68%7.41%29.90%-6.49%-10.26%129.80%0.88%-4.41%
Dividend Yield--2.08%2.10%0.67%1.17%1.57%1.14%0.79%0.90%0.25%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.8423.6514.19
Cash Retained (M)79.8079.8079.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.84-23.65-14.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.9656.1565.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.401,661.401,661.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate2.92%2.92%2.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.22$21.23$22.65
Upside / Downside192.61%223.08%244.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.22201.52214.62228.57243.42259.25267.02
Payout Ratio57.83%64.26%70.70%77.13%83.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.42129.50151.72176.29203.42233.32247.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.92%2.92%2.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)124.64125.82127.00
Year 2 PV (M)140.55143.23145.93
Year 3 PV (M)157.18161.69166.29
Year 4 PV (M)174.55181.27188.17
Year 5 PV (M)192.70202.01211.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,399.3921,384.6922,407.69
Equity Value (M)21,189.0122,198.6923,246.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.401,661.401,661.40
Fair Value$12.75$13.36$13.99
Upside / Downside94.12%103.37%112.97%

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