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Definitive Analysis

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Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.,Ltd (600409.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.75 - $1.08$0.91
Multi-Stage$2.07 - $2.28$2.17
Blended Fair Value$1.54
Current Price$5.63
Upside-72.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.48%-6.28%0.160.270.360.360.330.410.440.300.300.31
YoY Growth---39.06%-25.29%-0.07%11.43%-19.82%-8.07%46.35%-0.29%-2.95%-1.19%
Dividend Yield--3.00%5.34%5.49%4.51%3.00%8.08%5.88%3.50%3.16%4.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)225.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)183.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.1928.2416.95
Cash Retained (M)42.8742.8742.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.19-28.24-16.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.3214.6225.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,065.712,065.712,065.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-4.61%-3.61%-2.61%
Fair Value$0.75$0.91$1.08
Upside / Downside-86.64%-83.77%-80.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)225.96217.80209.93202.35195.05188.00193.64
Payout Ratio81.03%82.82%84.62%86.41%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)183.09180.39177.64174.86172.04169.20179.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-4.61%-3.61%-2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)167.64169.40171.16
Year 2 PV (M)153.43156.66159.93
Year 3 PV (M)140.35144.81149.37
Year 4 PV (M)128.34133.80139.44
Year 5 PV (M)117.30123.58130.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,562.273,752.953,951.70
Equity Value (M)4,269.324,481.204,701.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2,065.712,065.712,065.71
Fair Value$2.07$2.17$2.28
Upside / Downside-63.29%-61.47%-59.57%

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