Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tibet Summit Resources Co.,Ltd. (600338.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.36 - $3.20$2.79
Multi-Stage$4.50 - $4.95$4.72
Blended Fair Value$3.75
Current Price$13.46
Upside-72.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.29%31.51%0.160.010.100.170.050.200.480.430.000.01
YoY Growth--1,966.17%-92.56%-40.66%283.56%-77.03%-58.41%10.47%13,635.34%-59.78%-24.05%
Dividend Yield--1.57%0.08%0.45%0.66%0.43%2.51%2.64%1.86%0.01%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.3855.8733.52
Cash Retained (M)288.52288.52288.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.38-55.87-33.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)199.14232.66255.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)914.22914.22914.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Fair Value$2.36$2.79$3.20
Upside / Downside-82.46%-79.28%-76.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.92423.28400.89379.68359.60340.58350.79
Payout Ratio35.44%46.35%57.27%68.18%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.40196.21229.57258.86284.40306.52324.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-6.29%-5.29%-4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)177.72179.62181.52
Year 2 PV (M)188.36192.40196.48
Year 3 PV (M)192.38198.60204.96
Year 4 PV (M)191.45199.75208.33
Year 5 PV (M)186.90197.09207.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,173.693,346.683,527.13
Equity Value (M)4,110.514,314.154,526.13
Shares Outstanding (M)914.22914.22914.22
Fair Value$4.50$4.72$4.95
Upside / Downside-66.60%-64.94%-63.22%

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