Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. (600256.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.53 - $60.91$57.08
Multi-Stage$8.26 - $9.05$8.65
Blended Fair Value$32.86
Current Price$5.04
Upside552.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.63%17.74%0.820.810.410.180.170.110.050.020.220.04
YoY Growth--1.39%98.01%128.18%4.82%61.51%101.69%115.05%-88.76%434.00%-74.64%
Dividend Yield--13.47%11.02%4.41%2.18%5.50%4.09%1.18%0.64%5.09%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,970.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)515.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,455.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)394.07246.29147.77
Cash Retained (M)1,455.301,455.301,455.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-394.07-246.29-147.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,061.231,209.011,307.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,433.426,433.426,433.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.53$57.08$60.91
Upside / Downside307.27%1,032.54%1,108.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,970.332,098.402,234.802,380.062,534.762,699.522,780.51
Payout Ratio26.14%38.91%51.68%64.46%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)515.03816.521,155.021,534.081,957.542,429.572,571.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)757.64764.82772.00
Year 2 PV (M)994.451,013.401,032.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,225.581,260.761,296.61
Year 4 PV (M)1,451.111,506.921,564.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,671.151,751.871,835.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,059.4749,332.4651,692.44
Equity Value (M)53,159.4055,630.2258,193.56
Shares Outstanding (M)6,433.426,433.426,433.42
Fair Value$8.26$8.65$9.05
Upside / Downside63.95%71.57%79.47%

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