Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd (600125.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.16$3.51
Multi-Stage$4.03 - $4.43$4.23
Blended Fair Value$3.87
Current Price$6.35
Upside-39.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.49%21.98%0.110.080.080.100.110.120.080.060.070.08
YoY Growth--39.12%0.00%-20.00%-9.09%-8.33%50.00%33.33%-14.29%-12.50%424.00%
Dividend Yield--1.97%1.39%1.42%1.97%1.93%2.52%0.90%0.68%0.71%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)534.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)534.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.8666.7940.07
Cash Retained (M)534.14534.14534.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.86-66.79-40.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)427.28467.35494.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,305.521,305.521,305.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Fair Value$2.90$3.51$4.16
Upside / Downside-54.38%-44.65%-34.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)534.30533.22532.15531.08530.01528.94544.81
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1696.11191.67286.85381.64476.05503.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-1.20%-0.20%0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)86.5287.4088.27
Year 2 PV (M)155.34158.50161.70
Year 3 PV (M)209.29215.71222.26
Year 4 PV (M)250.68260.99271.60
Year 5 PV (M)281.51296.04311.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,277.954,498.874,728.83
Equity Value (M)5,261.295,517.515,783.84
Shares Outstanding (M)1,305.521,305.521,305.52
Fair Value$4.03$4.23$4.43
Upside / Downside-36.54%-33.44%-30.23%

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