Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NBTM New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (600114.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.58 - $172.53$161.68
Multi-Stage$25.27 - $27.65$26.44
Blended Fair Value$94.06
Current Price$33.04
Upside184.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.44%13.91%0.340.270.230.280.310.410.420.140.150.10
YoY Growth--25.14%20.52%-19.94%-7.84%-24.58%-1.66%204.05%-11.25%50.84%9.52%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.82%2.46%3.39%4.17%4.83%4.97%1.22%1.27%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)535.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)240.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.1266.9540.17
Cash Retained (M)295.42295.42295.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.12-66.95-40.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)188.29228.46255.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)617.42617.42617.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.58$161.68$172.53
Upside / Downside113.62%389.35%422.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)535.62570.43607.51647.00689.06733.85755.86
Payout Ratio44.85%53.88%62.91%71.94%80.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)240.20307.33382.17465.44557.92660.46699.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)285.76288.47291.18
Year 2 PV (M)330.41336.71343.06
Year 3 PV (M)374.17384.91395.85
Year 4 PV (M)417.04433.08449.57
Year 5 PV (M)459.04481.21504.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,737.4614,400.9815,089.90
Equity Value (M)15,603.8916,325.3617,073.81
Shares Outstanding (M)617.42617.42617.42
Fair Value$25.27$26.44$27.65
Upside / Downside-23.51%-19.97%-16.30%

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