Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Expressway Company Limited (600012.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.92 - $230.83$216.32
Multi-Stage$45.25 - $49.61$47.39
Blended Fair Value$131.86
Current Price$13.33
Upside889.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.00%12.79%0.730.550.550.230.230.250.230.230.230.23
YoY Growth--33.28%0.00%139.13%0.00%-8.00%8.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.26%4.00%6.16%2.97%3.16%4.89%3.27%2.41%1.38%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,925.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)177.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,748.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)385.02240.64144.38
Cash Retained (M)1,748.041,748.041,748.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-385.02-240.64-144.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,363.021,507.401,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.07
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.92$216.32$230.83
Upside / Downside1,369.80%1,522.83%1,631.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,925.122,050.262,183.522,325.452,476.612,637.592,716.72
Payout Ratio9.20%25.36%41.52%57.68%73.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)177.08519.92906.581,341.311,828.722,373.832,512.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)487.62492.25496.87
Year 2 PV (M)797.44812.63827.96
Year 3 PV (M)1,106.541,138.301,170.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,414.921,469.331,525.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,722.581,805.781,892.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)69,530.8772,889.2476,376.14
Equity Value (M)75,059.9778,607.5282,289.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
Fair Value$45.25$47.39$49.61
Upside / Downside239.50%255.54%272.19%

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