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Definitive Analysis

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Ihara Science Corporation (5999.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,848.95 - $14,794.03$9,786.28
Multi-Stage$4,870.06 - $5,324.90$5,093.34
Blended Fair Value$7,439.81
Current Price$2,200.13
Upside238.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS15.10%10.98%45.5144.7742.3742.1832.6822.5223.8221.6916.0616.06
YoY Growth--1.65%5.66%0.44%29.10%45.08%-5.43%9.79%35.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.15%2.45%2.95%3.15%1.42%1.23%3.16%2.37%1.98%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,868.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,751.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)773.60483.50290.10
Cash Retained (M)3,751.003,751.003,751.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-773.60-483.50-290.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,977.403,267.503,460.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.8310.8310.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share274.83301.61319.46
LTM Dividend per Share10.8010.8010.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share274.83301.61319.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend285.63312.41330.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,848.95$9,786.28$14,794.03
Upside / Downside211.30%344.80%572.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,868.004,119.424,387.184,672.354,976.055,299.505,458.48
Payout Ratio3.02%20.42%37.81%55.21%72.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.00841.181,659.012,579.603,612.864,769.555,049.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)758.22765.41772.59
Year 2 PV (M)1,347.911,373.581,399.50
Year 3 PV (M)1,889.161,943.401,998.66
Year 4 PV (M)2,384.922,476.642,570.98
Year 5 PV (M)2,837.962,975.033,117.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,541.5345,644.6047,828.16
Equity Value (M)52,759.7055,178.6657,687.24
Shares Outstanding (M)10.8310.8310.83
Fair Value$4,870.06$5,093.34$5,324.90
Upside / Downside121.35%131.50%142.03%

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