Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yuan High-Tech Development Co., Ltd. (5474.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.48 - $117.90$92.08
Multi-Stage$136.34 - $149.72$142.90
Blended Fair Value$117.49
Current Price$171.00
Upside-31.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.66%5.14%3.503.805.006.663.823.222.802.803.562.97
YoY Growth---7.89%-24.00%-25.00%74.62%18.42%15.15%0.00%-21.43%20.00%40.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%2.81%5.47%6.90%2.01%5.95%4.40%5.63%6.30%5.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)250.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)159.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)91.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0731.2918.77
Cash Retained (M)91.3091.3091.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.07-31.29-18.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.2460.0172.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.7839.7839.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.511.82
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.511.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.035.515.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Fair Value$71.48$92.08$117.90
Upside / Downside-58.20%-46.15%-31.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)250.33251.98253.63255.30256.98258.66266.42
Payout Ratio63.53%68.82%74.12%79.41%84.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)159.03173.41187.98202.73217.67232.80246.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Year 1 PV (M)160.95162.56164.18
Year 2 PV (M)161.93165.19168.49
Year 3 PV (M)162.08167.01172.03
Year 4 PV (M)161.51168.09174.87
Year 5 PV (M)160.32168.52177.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,617.434,853.795,099.73
Equity Value (M)5,424.205,685.165,956.37
Shares Outstanding (M)39.7839.7839.78
Fair Value$136.34$142.90$149.72
Upside / Downside-20.27%-16.43%-12.45%

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