Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tropicana Corporation Berhad (5401.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.59 - $0.86$0.72
Multi-Stage$0.96 - $1.06$1.01
Blended Fair Value$0.86
Current Price$1.19
Upside-27.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS3.17%0.00%0.020.020.020.010.010.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.96%11.45%128.79%0.26%-56.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.45%1.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)187.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.8024.8714.92
Cash Retained (M)187.66187.66187.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.80-24.87-14.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.86162.78172.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,487.822,487.822,487.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.59$0.72$0.86
Upside / Downside-50.50%-39.64%-28.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.00197.01195.04193.09191.16189.24194.92
Payout Ratio5.70%22.56%39.42%56.28%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3444.4476.88108.67139.81170.32180.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4940.9141.32
Year 2 PV (M)63.8265.1366.46
Year 3 PV (M)82.1984.7387.33
Year 4 PV (M)96.35100.34104.46
Year 5 PV (M)106.94112.51118.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,005.042,109.452,218.16
Equity Value (M)2,394.842,513.082,636.03
Shares Outstanding (M)2,487.822,487.822,487.82
Fair Value$0.96$1.01$1.06
Upside / Downside-19.11%-15.11%-10.96%

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