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Definitive Analysis

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Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust (5212.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.79 - $23.39$10.22
Multi-Stage$3.08 - $3.37$3.22
Blended Fair Value$6.72
Current Price$1.82
Upside269.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.44%3.91%0.090.070.050.040.050.070.070.060.070.07
YoY Growth--23.37%33.07%53.38%-23.70%-35.32%2.74%7.50%-2.95%1.23%8.89%
Dividend Yield--6.05%5.63%4.04%2.68%3.31%4.53%3.85%4.73%3.84%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)444.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.8755.5533.33
Cash Retained (M)268.28268.28268.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.87-55.55-33.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.41212.74234.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,750.623,750.623,750.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Fair Value$4.79$10.22$23.39
Upside / Downside163.16%461.49%1,185.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)444.36469.85496.79525.28555.41587.26604.88
Payout Ratio39.63%49.70%59.78%69.85%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.08233.51296.96366.91443.91528.53559.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate4.73%5.73%6.73%
Year 1 PV (M)216.56218.63220.70
Year 2 PV (M)255.41260.31265.26
Year 3 PV (M)292.67301.13309.75
Year 4 PV (M)328.38341.10354.19
Year 5 PV (M)362.60380.24398.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,081.2310,571.7811,081.25
Equity Value (M)11,536.8512,073.2012,629.71
Shares Outstanding (M)3,750.623,750.623,750.62
Fair Value$3.08$3.22$3.37
Upside / Downside69.01%76.87%85.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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