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Definitive Analysis

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Weathernews Inc. (4825.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,092.77 - $3,598.13$2,742.30
Multi-Stage$1,971.61 - $2,159.08$2,063.61
Blended Fair Value$2,402.96
Current Price$3,985.00
Upside-39.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.64%7.36%73.9968.1356.6956.5356.3856.2356.1756.0664.5458.87
YoY Growth--8.60%20.17%0.28%0.28%0.26%0.12%0.19%-13.13%9.62%61.91%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.37%1.78%1.40%1.95%2.34%3.63%3.44%3.76%3.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,114.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,112.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)622.99389.37233.62
Cash Retained (M)3,112.433,112.433,112.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-622.99-389.37-233.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,489.432,723.062,878.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.4119.4119.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share128.27140.31148.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share128.27140.31148.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.40140.44148.47
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$2,092.77$2,742.30$3,598.13
Upside / Downside-47.48%-31.18%-9.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,114.973,259.533,410.813,569.103,734.753,908.084,025.32
Payout Ratio0.08%18.07%36.05%54.03%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.54588.841,229.561,928.482,689.633,517.273,723.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)530.19535.31540.43
Year 2 PV (M)996.831,016.161,035.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,407.751,448.901,490.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,767.831,837.051,908.29
Year 5 PV (M)2,081.572,183.952,290.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,479.6033,027.8834,636.48
Equity Value (M)38,263.7840,049.2541,902.02
Shares Outstanding (M)19.4119.4119.41
Fair Value$1,971.61$2,063.61$2,159.08
Upside / Downside-50.52%-48.22%-45.82%

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