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Definitive Analysis

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Relia, Inc. (4708.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$765.25 - $1,268.84$987.98
Multi-Stage$1,379.98 - $1,515.69$1,446.53
Blended Fair Value$1,217.26
Current Price$1,457.00
Upside-16.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS4.15%-2.47%43.0044.8240.8439.3338.2635.0930.8530.8630.8446.76
YoY Growth---4.06%9.74%3.84%2.78%9.05%13.75%-0.05%0.06%-34.04%-15.35%
Dividend Yield--2.95%4.19%3.01%3.92%3.04%2.22%2.52%2.90%2.25%4.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,301.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,134.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,166.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)860.20537.63322.58
Cash Retained (M)2,166.012,166.012,166.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-860.20-537.63-322.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,305.811,628.381,843.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
LTM Dividend per Share32.9332.9332.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.1425.1128.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend53.0758.0461.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Fair Value$765.25$987.98$1,268.84
Upside / Downside-47.48%-32.19%-12.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,301.004,339.594,378.534,417.824,457.464,497.464,632.38
Payout Ratio49.64%57.71%65.78%73.86%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,134.992,504.452,880.363,262.823,651.904,047.714,284.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-0.10%0.90%1.90%
Year 1 PV (M)2,321.212,344.442,367.68
Year 2 PV (M)2,474.292,524.072,574.35
Year 3 PV (M)2,597.752,676.552,756.92
Year 4 PV (M)2,694.802,804.332,917.17
Year 5 PV (M)2,768.332,909.693,056.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,618.6080,531.0284,601.65
Equity Value (M)89,474.9893,790.1098,274.55
Shares Outstanding (M)64.8464.8464.84
Fair Value$1,379.98$1,446.53$1,515.69
Upside / Downside-5.29%-0.72%4.03%

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