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Definitive Analysis

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Terumo Corporation (4543.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,637.75 - $17,605.64$13,500.77
Multi-Stage$2,178.61 - $2,383.86$2,279.36
Blended Fair Value$7,890.06
Current Price$2,443.00
Upside222.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.68%12.46%24.1321.6918.9015.8914.3313.8913.2510.739.848.94
YoY Growth--11.28%14.73%18.95%10.87%3.16%4.87%23.46%9.10%9.98%19.87%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.85%0.83%0.78%0.64%0.68%0.81%0.68%0.89%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130,671.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,460.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)92,211.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26,134.2016,333.889,800.33
Cash Retained (M)92,211.0092,211.0092,211.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-26,134.20-16,333.88-9,800.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,076.8075,877.1382,410.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
LTM Dividend per Share26.0626.0626.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share44.7751.4055.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend70.8277.4681.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,637.75$13,500.77$17,605.64
Upside / Downside89.84%452.63%620.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130,671.00139,164.62148,210.31157,843.99168,103.84179,030.59184,401.51
Payout Ratio29.43%41.55%53.66%65.77%77.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,460.0057,817.5579,529.09103,818.85130,930.27161,127.53170,571.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)53,472.2353,979.0854,485.92
Year 2 PV (M)68,024.1769,319.8470,627.73
Year 3 PV (M)82,126.2684,483.8186,886.05
Year 4 PV (M)95,788.7599,472.51103,261.52
Year 5 PV (M)109,021.67114,287.45119,754.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,807,355.522,942,951.843,083,737.75
Equity Value (M)3,215,788.593,364,494.533,518,753.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,476.071,476.071,476.07
Fair Value$2,178.61$2,279.36$2,383.86
Upside / Downside-10.82%-6.70%-2.42%

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