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Definitive Analysis

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Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (4519.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,555.62 - $47,995.02$44,978.37
Multi-Stage$7,709.09 - $8,429.28$8,062.60
Blended Fair Value$26,520.48
Current Price$6,448.00
Upside311.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.77%18.44%80.9679.9583.9859.9355.5634.2521.2718.2619.2517.24
YoY Growth--1.26%-4.79%40.12%7.88%62.22%61.01%16.49%-5.12%11.64%15.72%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.40%2.57%1.46%1.24%0.82%0.84%1.02%1.51%1.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)397,202.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)299,832.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)97,370.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79,440.4049,650.2529,790.15
Cash Retained (M)97,370.0097,370.0097,370.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-79,440.40-49,650.25-29,790.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,929.6047,719.7567,579.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.871,645.871,645.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.8928.9941.06
LTM Dividend per Share182.17182.17182.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.8928.9941.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend193.07211.17223.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25,555.62$44,978.37$47,995.02
Upside / Downside296.33%597.56%644.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)397,202.00423,020.13450,516.44479,800.01510,987.01544,201.16560,527.20
Payout Ratio75.49%78.39%81.29%84.19%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)299,832.00331,600.49366,232.09403,964.78445,055.40489,781.05518,487.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)309,027.34311,956.51314,885.68
Year 2 PV (M)318,067.93324,126.23330,241.68
Year 3 PV (M)326,955.56336,341.28345,904.92
Year 4 PV (M)335,692.04348,601.81361,880.40
Year 5 PV (M)344,279.12360,907.93378,173.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,054,137.6411,588,056.6212,142,409.94
Equity Value (M)12,688,159.6213,269,990.3713,873,495.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,645.871,645.871,645.87
Fair Value$7,709.09$8,062.60$8,429.28
Upside / Downside19.56%25.04%30.73%

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