Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SAL Saudi Logistics Services Co (4263.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.50 - $108.72$88.26
Multi-Stage$159.34 - $175.31$167.17
Blended Fair Value$127.72
Current Price$187.80
Upside-31.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%6.174.403.191.250.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--40.23%38.04%155.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%1.83%2.40%0.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)612.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)338.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)274.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)122.5776.6145.97
Cash Retained (M)274.16274.16274.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-122.57-76.61-45.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)151.59197.55228.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
LTM Dividend per Share4.234.234.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.892.472.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.136.707.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70.50$88.26$108.72
Upside / Downside-62.46%-53.00%-42.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)612.87606.74600.68594.67588.72582.84600.32
Payout Ratio55.27%62.21%69.16%76.11%83.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)338.71377.47415.43452.58488.95524.55555.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)350.81354.38357.96
Year 2 PV (M)358.80366.16373.60
Year 3 PV (M)363.28374.51385.97
Year 4 PV (M)364.74379.86395.44
Year 5 PV (M)363.65382.59402.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,952.1711,522.4812,116.29
Equity Value (M)12,753.4513,379.9814,031.58
Shares Outstanding (M)80.0480.0480.04
Fair Value$159.34$167.17$175.31
Upside / Downside-15.15%-10.99%-6.65%

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