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Definitive Analysis

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Sumitomo Bakelite Company Limited (4203.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,571.66 - $43,152.82$40,440.51
Multi-Stage$6,412.03 - $7,016.77$6,708.85
Blended Fair Value$23,574.68
Current Price$4,169.00
Upside465.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.32%12.64%87.0872.0862.1149.1631.0642.7034.9428.4825.8826.49
YoY Growth--20.81%16.04%26.33%58.29%-27.25%22.19%22.71%10.03%-2.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.54%2.08%2.42%1.27%2.83%1.79%1.07%1.31%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,728.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,574.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,154.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,945.602,466.001,479.60
Cash Retained (M)11,154.0011,154.0011,154.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,945.60-2,466.00-1,479.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,208.408,688.009,674.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.9290.9290.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.2895.56106.41
LTM Dividend per Share94.3094.3094.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.2895.56106.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend173.59189.86200.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,571.66$40,440.51$43,152.82
Upside / Downside345.47%870.03%935.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,728.0021,010.3222,375.9923,830.4325,379.4127,029.0727,839.94
Payout Ratio43.46%52.77%62.08%71.38%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,574.0011,086.9113,890.2617,011.2220,479.2124,326.1625,751.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,313.8410,411.6010,509.36
Year 2 PV (M)12,020.7212,249.6812,480.80
Year 3 PV (M)13,695.1014,088.2414,488.83
Year 4 PV (M)15,337.4415,927.2716,533.96
Year 5 PV (M)16,948.1917,766.7918,616.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)514,659.49539,517.74565,327.37
Equity Value (M)582,974.77609,961.32637,957.04
Shares Outstanding (M)90.9290.9290.92
Fair Value$6,412.03$6,708.85$7,016.77
Upside / Downside53.80%60.92%68.31%

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