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Definitive Analysis

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Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores Company (4191.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.78 - $31.51$23.59
Multi-Stage$27.17 - $29.76$28.44
Blended Fair Value$26.01
Current Price$44.48
Upside-41.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.11%3.20%1.001.510.500.500.500.400.450.440.450.00
YoY Growth---33.33%200.00%0.00%0.00%25.00%-10.11%0.66%-1.76%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.56%5.45%1.46%1.75%0.94%2.46%3.19%4.83%4.36%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.223.271.96
Cash Retained (M)6.126.126.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.22-3.27-1.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.902.864.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.9019.9019.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate1.20%2.20%3.20%
Fair Value$17.78$23.59$31.51
Upside / Downside-60.02%-46.97%-29.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.1226.7027.2827.8828.5029.1229.99
Payout Ratio76.56%79.25%81.94%84.63%87.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0021.1622.3523.6024.8826.2127.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate1.20%2.20%3.20%
Year 1 PV (M)19.5519.7419.93
Year 2 PV (M)19.0819.4619.85
Year 3 PV (M)18.6119.1719.74
Year 4 PV (M)18.1318.8619.61
Year 5 PV (M)17.6518.5419.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)447.60470.15493.61
Equity Value (M)540.62565.92592.19
Shares Outstanding (M)19.9019.9019.90
Fair Value$27.17$28.44$29.76
Upside / Downside-38.93%-36.07%-33.10%

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