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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Jyoho Create Co.,Ltd. (4054.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$262.60 - $376.83$318.46
Multi-Stage$410.77 - $451.63$430.80
Blended Fair Value$374.63
Current Price$733.00
Upside-48.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%5.035.015.055.060.000.000.0024.610.000.00
YoY Growth--0.38%-0.70%-0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.51%0.65%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)529.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)458.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.8566.1639.69
Cash Retained (M)458.79458.79458.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.85-66.16-39.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)352.94392.64419.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.0514.0514.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.1227.9529.83
LTM Dividend per Share5.015.015.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.1227.9529.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend30.1432.9634.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$262.60$318.46$376.83
Upside / Downside-64.18%-56.55%-48.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)529.24523.95518.71513.52508.39503.30518.40
Payout Ratio13.31%28.65%43.99%59.32%74.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.45150.11228.16304.64379.57452.97479.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)136.01137.40138.79
Year 2 PV (M)187.33191.17195.05
Year 3 PV (M)226.64233.65240.80
Year 4 PV (M)255.87266.47277.40
Year 5 PV (M)276.68291.08306.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,688.294,932.425,186.61
Equity Value (M)5,770.816,052.196,344.74
Shares Outstanding (M)14.0514.0514.05
Fair Value$410.77$430.80$451.63
Upside / Downside-43.96%-41.23%-38.39%

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