Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wanguo Gold Group Limited (3939.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.12 - $19.82$12.10
Multi-Stage$5.70 - $6.23$5.96
Blended Fair Value$9.03
Current Price$7.15
Upside26.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%19.12%0.070.020.020.010.010.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--204.33%-0.99%238.57%28.98%0.00%-100.00%833.33%-62.50%-50.00%-63.47%
Dividend Yield--2.54%2.44%5.30%1.74%1.13%0.00%2.07%0.20%0.55%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,364.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,029.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)272.88170.55102.33
Cash Retained (M)1,029.631,029.631,029.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-272.88-170.55-102.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)756.75859.08927.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,667.963,667.963,667.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.12$12.10$19.82
Upside / Downside13.58%69.17%177.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,364.421,453.101,547.551,648.141,755.271,869.371,925.45
Payout Ratio24.54%37.63%50.72%63.81%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.78546.79784.951,051.761,349.931,682.431,781.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)495.27499.97504.66
Year 2 PV (M)644.00656.27668.65
Year 3 PV (M)781.59804.03826.89
Year 4 PV (M)908.65943.60979.54
Year 5 PV (M)1,025.761,075.301,126.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,058.0017,881.9118,737.35
Equity Value (M)20,913.2721,861.0722,843.83
Shares Outstanding (M)3,667.963,667.963,667.96
Fair Value$5.70$5.96$6.23
Upside / Downside-20.26%-16.64%-12.90%

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