Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Lingbao Gold Group Company Ltd. (3330.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.81 - $253.53$137.97
Multi-Stage$28.88 - $31.62$30.23
Blended Fair Value$84.10
Current Price$9.38
Upside796.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.75%26.08%0.070.000.000.000.000.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%13.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,539.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,458.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)307.94192.46115.48
Cash Retained (M)1,458.871,458.871,458.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-307.94-192.46-115.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,150.931,266.411,343.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,207.781,207.781,207.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.051.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.051.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.81$137.97$253.53
Upside / Downside516.36%1,370.93%2,602.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,539.701,639.781,746.361,859.881,980.772,109.522,172.80
Payout Ratio5.25%22.20%39.15%56.10%73.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.83364.02683.691,043.391,446.951,898.572,009.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.36%7.36%7.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)335.88339.06342.25
Year 2 PV (M)582.07593.16604.35
Year 3 PV (M)819.62843.15867.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,048.761,089.101,130.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,269.721,331.041,394.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,821.6432,310.3333,856.01
Equity Value (M)34,877.6936,505.8438,195.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,207.781,207.781,207.78
Fair Value$28.88$30.23$31.62
Upside / Downside207.86%222.23%237.14%

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