Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aethertek technology co., Ltd. (3219.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.34 - $13.45$11.35
Multi-Stage$14.95 - $16.43$15.67
Blended Fair Value$13.51
Current Price$81.30
Upside-83.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.350.992.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---64.43%-58.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.05%2.50%4.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.3212.077.24
Cash Retained (M)77.7277.7277.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.32-12.07-7.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.4065.6470.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.1073.1073.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.900.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.900.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.34$11.35$13.45
Upside / Downside-88.51%-86.05%-83.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.5995.6394.6793.7392.7991.8694.62
Payout Ratio19.54%33.63%47.72%61.82%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.8832.1645.1857.9470.4382.6787.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)29.1929.4829.78
Year 2 PV (M)37.2037.9738.74
Year 3 PV (M)43.2944.6346.00
Year 4 PV (M)47.7649.7351.78
Year 5 PV (M)50.8753.5156.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)884.37930.42978.37
Equity Value (M)1,092.671,145.751,200.94
Shares Outstanding (M)73.1073.1073.10
Fair Value$14.95$15.67$16.43
Upside / Downside-81.62%-80.72%-79.79%

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