Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen SOFARSOLAR Co Ltd (301658.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SolarSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.68 - $3.81$3.24
Multi-Stage$4.14 - $4.54$4.34
Blended Fair Value$3.79
Current Price$35.19
Upside-89.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.040.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)155.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.0719.4211.65
Cash Retained (M)103.61103.61103.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.07-19.42-11.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.5484.1991.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)383.63383.63383.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.68$3.24$3.81
Upside / Downside-92.37%-90.79%-89.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)155.34153.78152.25150.72149.22147.72152.15
Payout Ratio33.30%44.64%55.98%67.32%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.7368.6585.23101.47117.37132.95140.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)61.8862.5163.14
Year 2 PV (M)69.2470.6672.10
Year 3 PV (M)74.3076.6078.94
Year 4 PV (M)77.4780.6883.99
Year 5 PV (M)79.0983.2187.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,226.761,290.641,357.15
Equity Value (M)1,588.741,664.301,742.82
Shares Outstanding (M)383.63383.63383.63
Fair Value$4.14$4.34$4.54
Upside / Downside-88.23%-87.67%-87.09%

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