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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huayuan Auto Technology Co Ltd (301535.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.25 - $77.17$72.27
Multi-Stage$39.88 - $44.06$41.93
Blended Fair Value$57.10
Current Price$20.14
Upside183.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0515.659.39
Cash Retained (M)71.5171.5171.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.05-15.65-9.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.4655.8562.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.19300.19300.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$49.25$72.27$77.17
Upside / Downside144.56%258.85%283.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.23123.98122.74121.51120.29119.09122.66
Payout Ratio42.90%52.32%61.74%71.16%80.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.7264.8675.7886.4796.93107.18113.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.34%-1.34%-1.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65.0865.7466.41
Year 2 PV (M)76.2877.8479.42
Year 3 PV (M)87.3290.0392.78
Year 4 PV (M)98.22102.29106.49
Year 5 PV (M)108.96114.64120.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,534.9812,135.6312,761.05
Equity Value (M)11,970.8412,586.1713,226.69
Shares Outstanding (M)300.19300.19300.19
Fair Value$39.88$41.93$44.06
Upside / Downside98.00%108.18%118.77%

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