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Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$503.66 - $969.69$908.74
Multi-Stage$152.82 - $167.20$159.88
Blended Fair Value$534.31
Current Price$61.76
Upside765.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS374.79%0.00%1.800.900.260.170.000.000.010.020.000.00
YoY Growth--99.37%251.42%50.14%0.00%-100.00%-90.07%-52.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.82%1.16%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)569.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.8971.1842.71
Cash Retained (M)256.75256.75256.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.89-71.18-42.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.86185.57214.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.904.274.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$503.66$908.74$969.69
Upside / Downside715.52%1,371.41%1,470.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)569.47606.48645.90687.89732.60780.22803.62
Payout Ratio54.91%61.93%68.95%75.97%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.72375.60445.34522.56607.93702.20743.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)349.97353.28356.60
Year 2 PV (M)386.63393.99401.42
Year 3 PV (M)422.70434.83447.20
Year 4 PV (M)458.20475.82493.94
Year 5 PV (M)493.13516.94541.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,737.7116,497.8517,287.08
Equity Value (M)17,848.3318,672.7219,527.92
Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
Fair Value$152.82$159.88$167.20
Upside / Downside147.44%158.87%170.73%

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