Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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TianJin JinRong TianYu Precision Machinery Inc. (300988.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.73 - $144.59$135.50
Multi-Stage$36.10 - $39.57$37.81
Blended Fair Value$86.66
Current Price$22.52
Upside284.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.02%27.95%0.270.210.190.230.150.140.020.060.020.08
YoY Growth--24.84%12.70%-16.68%47.18%11.71%518.44%-65.06%257.73%-77.21%246.43%
Dividend Yield--1.30%0.74%0.85%0.71%0.45%0.40%0.06%0.19%0.05%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5712.867.72
Cash Retained (M)68.7168.7168.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.57-12.86-7.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.1455.8561.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.49141.49141.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.73$135.50$144.59
Upside / Downside444.97%501.71%542.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.87109.56116.68124.26132.34140.94145.17
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.1648.8265.2583.61104.07126.85134.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.0246.4546.89
Year 2 PV (M)57.9759.0760.19
Year 3 PV (M)70.0172.0274.06
Year 4 PV (M)82.1485.3088.55
Year 5 PV (M)94.3698.92103.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,757.594,987.385,225.97
Equity Value (M)5,108.085,349.145,599.31
Shares Outstanding (M)141.49141.49141.49
Fair Value$36.10$37.81$39.57
Upside / Downside60.31%67.88%75.73%

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