Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Hengyu Datacom Aviation Equipment co., Ltd. (300965.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.21 - $4.46$3.84
Multi-Stage$5.35 - $5.85$5.60
Blended Fair Value$4.72
Current Price$60.37
Upside-92.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-43.22%0.00%0.030.070.200.300.970.510.930.751.500.00
YoY Growth---60.00%-63.41%-31.67%-68.97%90.23%-45.22%23.68%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.18%0.41%0.51%0.75%0.40%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.654.152.49
Cash Retained (M)10.4310.4310.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.65-4.15-2.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.786.287.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.0160.0160.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate-3.12%-2.12%-1.12%
Fair Value$3.21$3.84$4.46
Upside / Downside-94.68%-93.65%-92.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.2332.5331.8431.1630.5029.8630.75
Payout Ratio68.61%72.89%77.17%81.45%85.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.8023.7124.5725.3826.1526.8728.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate-3.12%-2.12%-1.12%
Year 1 PV (M)21.2821.5021.72
Year 2 PV (M)19.8020.2120.63
Year 3 PV (M)18.3718.9419.53
Year 4 PV (M)16.9917.7018.43
Year 5 PV (M)15.6716.5017.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)228.93240.99253.56
Equity Value (M)321.04335.85351.23
Shares Outstanding (M)60.0160.0160.01
Fair Value$5.35$5.60$5.85
Upside / Downside-91.14%-90.73%-90.31%

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