Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co., Ltd. (300952.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.05 - $125.34$44.91
Multi-Stage$13.14 - $14.37$13.75
Blended Fair Value$29.33
Current Price$30.70
Upside-4.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS85.33%0.00%0.270.200.110.210.010.010.211.000.000.00
YoY Growth--39.55%74.38%-47.84%1,401.64%14.71%-94.02%-79.15%67,884.69%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.99%0.59%1.21%0.04%0.02%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8913.067.83
Cash Retained (M)72.9572.9572.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.89-13.06-7.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0659.9065.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.05$44.91$125.34
Upside / Downside-24.92%46.27%308.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.45111.24118.47126.18134.38143.11147.40
Payout Ratio30.16%42.13%54.09%66.06%78.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.5046.8664.0983.35104.86128.80136.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.0643.4743.88
Year 2 PV (M)54.1155.1456.18
Year 3 PV (M)64.6766.5268.42
Year 4 PV (M)74.7577.6280.58
Year 5 PV (M)84.3788.4492.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,857.651,947.372,040.53
Equity Value (M)2,178.602,278.572,382.25
Shares Outstanding (M)165.74165.74165.74
Fair Value$13.14$13.75$14.37
Upside / Downside-57.18%-55.22%-53.18%

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