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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Chunhui Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. (300943.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.66 - $52.62$49.31
Multi-Stage$31.74 - $34.84$33.26
Blended Fair Value$41.29
Current Price$16.18
Upside155.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.75%52.83%0.120.150.070.070.000.050.270.000.000.01
YoY Growth---19.73%104.55%10.00%319,317.02%-99.96%-80.02%0.00%-100.00%-76.88%643.85%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.24%0.51%0.38%0.00%0.23%1.13%0.00%0.01%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)55.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.016.884.13
Cash Retained (M)27.8427.8427.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.01-6.88-4.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.8320.9623.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)207.47207.47207.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Fair Value$44.66$49.31$52.62
Upside / Downside176.01%204.76%225.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)55.0458.4662.0965.9670.0674.4176.64
Payout Ratio49.41%57.53%65.65%73.77%81.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2033.6340.7648.6557.3666.9770.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.25%1.25%1.25%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Year 1 PV (M)32.9133.2233.53
Year 2 PV (M)39.0239.7740.52
Year 3 PV (M)45.5746.8848.21
Year 4 PV (M)52.5654.5956.68
Year 5 PV (M)60.0462.9565.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,356.046,663.886,983.53
Equity Value (M)6,586.146,901.297,228.45
Shares Outstanding (M)207.47207.47207.47
Fair Value$31.74$33.26$34.84
Upside / Downside96.19%105.58%115.33%

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