Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Winner Medical Co., Ltd. (300888.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.46 - $141.39$68.04
Multi-Stage$26.70 - $29.19$27.92
Blended Fair Value$47.98
Current Price$38.30
Upside25.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.15%23.80%0.711.410.691.320.180.070.070.200.100.10
YoY Growth---49.77%104.90%-47.80%650.68%137.66%0.60%-62.58%94.91%-3.64%24.82%
Dividend Yield--1.54%3.99%1.46%3.01%0.18%0.08%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)874.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)227.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)647.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.86109.2965.57
Cash Retained (M)647.12647.12647.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.86-109.29-65.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)472.26537.83581.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.51582.51582.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.921.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.921.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.46$68.04$141.39
Upside / Downside8.25%77.66%269.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)874.31931.14991.661,056.121,124.771,197.881,233.81
Payout Ratio25.98%38.79%51.59%64.39%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)227.19361.17511.61680.08868.291,078.091,141.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)329.58332.70335.83
Year 2 PV (M)426.03434.14442.33
Year 3 PV (M)516.79531.62546.74
Year 4 PV (M)602.10625.25649.07
Year 5 PV (M)682.20715.15749.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,999.2413,627.1114,279.01
Equity Value (M)15,555.9316,265.9717,002.33
Shares Outstanding (M)582.51582.51582.51
Fair Value$26.70$27.92$29.19
Upside / Downside-30.27%-27.09%-23.79%

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