Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AnHui Jinchun Nonwoven Co., Ltd. (300877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.82 - $156.03$63.67
Multi-Stage$16.76 - $18.34$17.54
Blended Fair Value$40.60
Current Price$29.06
Upside39.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.26%11.67%0.130.040.250.750.020.050.080.030.000.11
YoY Growth--191.36%-82.12%-66.54%3,798.85%-62.97%-36.11%159.88%0.00%-100.00%145.04%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.31%1.49%3.57%0.04%0.09%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4311.526.91
Cash Retained (M)76.5176.5176.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.43-11.52-6.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.0864.9969.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.82$63.67$156.03
Upside / Downside6.07%119.09%436.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.1698.15104.53111.32118.56126.27130.05
Payout Ratio16.98%31.58%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.6531.0048.2867.6889.39113.64120.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)28.5328.8029.07
Year 2 PV (M)40.8841.6642.45
Year 3 PV (M)52.7454.2555.79
Year 4 PV (M)64.1066.5769.10
Year 5 PV (M)74.9978.6182.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,707.831,790.311,875.96
Equity Value (M)1,969.072,060.212,154.75
Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
Fair Value$16.76$17.54$18.34
Upside / Downside-42.32%-39.65%-36.88%

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