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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou DPtech Technologies Co.,Ltd. (300768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.56 - $9.24$6.36
Multi-Stage$3.44 - $3.76$3.60
Blended Fair Value$4.98
Current Price$19.20
Upside-74.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS176.79%33.82%0.080.080.100.080.080.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.67%-16.72%16.01%0.07%16,816.23%-44.18%41.90%-81.86%-7.39%-14.81%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.64%0.51%0.45%0.33%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.03%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)111.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.4820.3012.18
Cash Retained (M)111.51111.51111.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.48-20.30-12.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.0391.2199.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)630.57630.57630.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate10.27%10.27%10.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.56$6.36$9.24
Upside / Downside-76.27%-66.85%-51.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.38172.93184.17196.14208.89222.47229.14
Payout Ratio31.33%43.06%54.80%66.53%78.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8774.47100.92130.49163.49200.22211.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.27%10.27%10.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)66.9067.5368.16
Year 2 PV (M)81.4483.0084.56
Year 3 PV (M)94.6197.32100.09
Year 4 PV (M)106.48110.57114.79
Year 5 PV (M)117.15122.80128.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,705.681,788.071,873.61
Equity Value (M)2,172.252,269.292,369.89
Shares Outstanding (M)630.57630.57630.57
Fair Value$3.44$3.60$3.76
Upside / Downside-82.06%-81.26%-80.43%

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