Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangyin Electrical Alloy Co.,Ltd (300697.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.74 - $12.29$9.04
Multi-Stage$7.53 - $8.24$7.87
Blended Fair Value$8.46
Current Price$18.91
Upside-55.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.68%4.83%0.220.200.190.270.200.180.090.000.060.06
YoY Growth--10.73%3.93%-30.04%37.88%7.93%107.78%0.00%-100.00%-0.34%-59.71%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.12%2.35%3.34%2.27%2.76%1.43%0.00%1.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2120.7612.46
Cash Retained (M)98.0498.0498.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.21-20.76-12.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.8277.2885.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)358.25358.25358.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate2.83%3.83%4.83%
Fair Value$6.74$9.04$12.29
Upside / Downside-64.35%-52.18%-35.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.07172.44179.05185.92193.05200.45206.46
Payout Ratio40.97%50.77%60.58%70.39%80.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.0487.56108.47130.86154.81180.40190.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate2.83%3.83%4.83%
Year 1 PV (M)79.9380.7081.48
Year 2 PV (M)90.3992.1693.94
Year 3 PV (M)99.55102.48105.47
Year 4 PV (M)107.50111.74116.11
Year 5 PV (M)114.35120.02125.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,204.512,313.812,427.39
Equity Value (M)2,696.232,820.912,950.31
Shares Outstanding (M)358.25358.25358.25
Fair Value$7.53$7.87$8.24
Upside / Downside-60.20%-58.36%-56.45%

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