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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Lihu Corporation Limited. (300694.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.41 - $27.59$25.85
Multi-Stage$15.88 - $17.44$16.64
Blended Fair Value$21.25
Current Price$12.02
Upside76.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.12%6.36%0.100.050.060.070.080.060.080.080.060.07
YoY Growth--113.23%-15.87%-21.01%-6.19%33.33%-24.32%-2.63%27.27%-8.80%22.21%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.46%0.54%0.70%0.87%0.50%0.32%0.55%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.273.922.35
Cash Retained (M)6.526.526.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.27-3.92-2.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.252.604.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)223.61223.61223.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate1.66%1.66%1.66%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Fair Value$23.41$25.85$27.59
Upside / Downside94.76%115.06%129.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.3533.0334.8036.6738.6340.7041.92
Payout Ratio79.20%81.36%83.52%85.68%87.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.8326.8729.0631.4233.9336.6338.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.66%1.66%1.66%
Growth Rate4.36%5.36%6.36%
Year 1 PV (M)26.1826.4326.68
Year 2 PV (M)27.5928.1228.66
Year 3 PV (M)29.0629.9030.76
Year 4 PV (M)30.5831.7733.00
Year 5 PV (M)32.1733.7435.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,405.313,571.623,744.36
Equity Value (M)3,550.893,721.593,898.83
Shares Outstanding (M)223.61223.61223.61
Fair Value$15.88$16.64$17.44
Upside / Downside32.11%38.46%45.06%

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