Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Shuangyi Technology Co., Ltd. (300690.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.70 - $37.27$25.07
Multi-Stage$37.30 - $41.06$39.14
Blended Fair Value$32.11
Current Price$38.88
Upside-17.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.68%7.35%0.210.150.300.670.470.300.450.300.220.11
YoY Growth--38.74%-49.36%-54.75%43.13%55.53%-33.53%51.10%32.84%99.84%7.69%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.67%1.75%3.36%1.62%1.98%2.54%1.34%1.17%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2620.7912.47
Cash Retained (M)130.99130.99130.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.26-20.79-12.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.73110.20118.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$17.70$25.07$37.27
Upside / Downside-54.47%-35.53%-4.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.32169.08171.89174.74177.64180.59186.00
Payout Ratio21.24%34.99%48.75%62.50%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.3359.1783.79109.21135.45162.53172.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.21%5.21%5.21%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)55.6956.2456.79
Year 2 PV (M)74.2275.7077.20
Year 3 PV (M)91.0493.7896.58
Year 4 PV (M)106.28110.56114.98
Year 5 PV (M)120.02126.10132.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,759.636,051.476,355.01
Equity Value (M)6,206.876,513.866,832.99
Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
Fair Value$37.30$39.14$41.06
Upside / Downside-4.07%0.68%5.61%

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