Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Electric Connector Technology Co., Ltd. (300679.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$214.82 - $253.10$237.19
Multi-Stage$172.20 - $188.98$180.43
Blended Fair Value$208.81
Current Price$57.00
Upside266.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.15%9.55%0.360.190.370.290.120.060.000.290.170.24
YoY Growth--85.08%-47.51%25.99%146.64%92.31%0.00%-100.00%72.51%-30.22%65.50%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.47%1.06%0.94%0.46%0.27%0.00%1.15%0.60%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)536.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)337.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.3067.0640.24
Cash Retained (M)337.75337.75337.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.30-67.06-40.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)230.45270.69297.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.56421.56421.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.640.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.640.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$214.82$237.19$253.10
Upside / Downside276.88%316.12%344.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)536.50571.37608.51648.06690.19735.05757.10
Payout Ratio37.04%47.64%58.23%68.82%79.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.75272.18354.32445.98548.07661.55700.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)272.39274.97277.55
Year 2 PV (M)354.87361.63368.45
Year 3 PV (M)447.02459.85472.93
Year 4 PV (M)549.77570.91592.66
Year 5 PV (M)664.11696.19729.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,303.4973,699.1777,224.82
Equity Value (M)72,591.6476,062.7279,665.90
Shares Outstanding (M)421.56421.56421.56
Fair Value$172.20$180.43$188.98
Upside / Downside202.10%216.54%231.54%

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