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Definitive Analysis

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Astro-century Education&Technology Co.,Ltd (300654.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.08 - $20.13$18.86
Multi-Stage$6.49 - $7.11$6.79
Blended Fair Value$12.83
Current Price$10.09
Upside27.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.03%42.42%0.060.050.050.040.030.030.030.000.000.09
YoY Growth--16.81%0.00%19.05%47.33%7.14%5.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.78%4,915.39%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.38%0.65%0.76%0.58%0.48%0.29%0.00%0.03%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.454.662.79
Cash Retained (M)13.8113.8113.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.45-4.66-2.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.359.1511.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)368.21368.21368.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.08$18.86$20.13
Upside / Downside69.32%86.95%99.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.2739.6942.2745.0247.9451.0652.59
Payout Ratio62.95%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.4627.1331.1835.6440.5545.9548.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.65%4.65%4.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.6825.9326.17
Year 2 PV (M)27.9428.4729.01
Year 3 PV (M)30.2331.1031.98
Year 4 PV (M)32.5633.8135.10
Year 5 PV (M)34.9236.6138.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,237.942,346.032,458.26
Equity Value (M)2,389.272,501.952,618.88
Shares Outstanding (M)368.21368.21368.21
Fair Value$6.49$6.79$7.11
Upside / Downside-35.69%-32.66%-29.51%

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