Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hang Zhou Radical Energy-Saving Technology Co., Ltd. (300652.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.05 - $59.56$39.84
Multi-Stage$20.24 - $22.12$21.16
Blended Fair Value$30.50
Current Price$59.97
Upside-49.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.90%12.30%0.470.370.270.510.200.340.080.010.170.04
YoY Growth--26.15%39.63%-47.97%151.57%-39.45%307.84%599.09%-92.99%318.72%-72.70%
Dividend Yield--1.43%1.97%1.53%3.25%1.41%2.29%0.47%0.06%0.74%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)164.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.9620.6012.36
Cash Retained (M)149.22149.22149.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.96-20.60-12.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)116.26128.62136.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.38110.38110.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.171.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.171.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.311.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.05$39.84$59.56
Upside / Downside-53.23%-33.57%-0.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)164.82175.53186.94199.10212.04225.82232.59
Payout Ratio9.46%25.57%41.68%57.79%73.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.6044.8877.91115.05156.68203.24215.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4240.8141.19
Year 2 PV (M)63.2064.4065.62
Year 3 PV (M)84.0486.4588.91
Year 4 PV (M)103.08107.04111.12
Year 5 PV (M)120.42126.23132.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,822.911,910.962,002.37
Equity Value (M)2,234.072,335.892,441.48
Shares Outstanding (M)110.38110.38110.38
Fair Value$20.24$21.16$22.12
Upside / Downside-66.25%-64.71%-63.12%

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