Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Julong Science&Technology Co.,LTD (300644.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.64 - $60.35$37.73
Multi-Stage$17.78 - $19.44$18.59
Blended Fair Value$28.16
Current Price$35.62
Upside-20.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.33%7.94%0.350.150.200.180.120.090.180.320.260.17
YoY Growth--131.91%-25.59%13.23%53.16%30.52%-50.00%-44.22%24.18%49.80%5.95%
Dividend Yield--1.50%0.87%1.19%1.10%0.62%0.49%0.99%1.17%1.71%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)128.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)122.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.8016.129.67
Cash Retained (M)122.31122.31122.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.80-16.12-9.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.51106.18112.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.01106.01106.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.911.001.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.911.001.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.64$37.73$60.35
Upside / Downside-28.01%5.93%69.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)128.99137.38146.31155.82165.94176.73182.03
Payout Ratio5.18%22.15%39.11%56.07%73.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6930.4257.2287.37121.20159.06168.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.5227.7828.04
Year 2 PV (M)46.8347.7248.62
Year 3 PV (M)64.6866.5468.43
Year 4 PV (M)81.1784.2987.50
Year 5 PV (M)96.36101.01105.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,568.131,643.871,722.51
Equity Value (M)1,884.691,971.212,060.95
Shares Outstanding (M)106.01106.01106.01
Fair Value$17.78$18.59$19.44
Upside / Downside-50.09%-47.80%-45.42%

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