Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SonoScape Medical Corp. (300633.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.10 - $6.95$4.49
Multi-Stage$2.37 - $2.58$2.48
Blended Fair Value$3.48
Current Price$34.38
Upside-89.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.43%8.20%0.330.190.130.010.070.100.050.040.010.01
YoY Growth--74.48%43.22%942.23%-81.91%-28.68%98.04%39.37%285.08%-20.68%-92.24%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.51%0.24%0.05%0.30%0.38%0.16%0.12%0.12%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.388.375.02
Cash Retained (M)19.2319.2319.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.38-8.37-5.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.8510.8714.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.54432.54432.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.10$4.49$6.95
Upside / Downside-90.98%-86.95%-79.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.9271.2775.9180.8486.0991.6994.44
Payout Ratio71.26%75.01%78.76%82.50%86.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6953.4659.7866.7074.2682.5287.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.2748.7349.18
Year 2 PV (M)48.7349.6650.60
Year 3 PV (M)49.0950.5051.94
Year 4 PV (M)49.3551.2553.20
Year 5 PV (M)49.5251.9154.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)780.89818.61857.77
Equity Value (M)1,025.861,070.671,117.09
Shares Outstanding (M)432.54432.54432.54
Fair Value$2.37$2.48$2.58
Upside / Downside-93.10%-92.80%-92.49%

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