Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Meili High Technology Co., Ltd. (300611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.25 - $137.07$128.45
Multi-Stage$18.04 - $19.74$18.87
Blended Fair Value$73.66
Current Price$26.25
Upside180.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.76%14.69%0.130.030.120.120.100.100.120.110.010.01
YoY Growth--339.33%-75.67%-0.69%18.06%5.58%-18.38%11.17%1,956.52%-54.68%-64.82%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.32%1.37%1.27%1.20%1.22%1.08%0.87%0.02%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)103.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1818.2410.94
Cash Retained (M)103.71103.71103.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.18-18.24-10.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.5385.4892.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)211.69211.69211.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.25$128.45$137.07
Upside / Downside60.96%389.34%422.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.90155.38165.48176.23187.69199.89205.89
Payout Ratio28.91%41.13%53.35%65.57%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.1863.9188.28115.55145.99179.90190.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.2359.8060.36
Year 2 PV (M)75.8477.2878.74
Year 3 PV (M)92.0194.6597.34
Year 4 PV (M)107.75111.89116.15
Year 5 PV (M)123.06129.01135.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,360.493,522.813,691.33
Equity Value (M)3,818.383,995.434,179.10
Shares Outstanding (M)211.69211.69211.69
Fair Value$18.04$18.87$19.74
Upside / Downside-31.28%-28.10%-24.79%

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