Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Wuhan Ligong Guangke Co., Ltd. (300557.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.27 - $20.03$13.24
Multi-Stage$6.91 - $7.54$7.22
Blended Fair Value$10.23
Current Price$26.94
Upside-62.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.15%2.32%0.150.150.110.010.020.060.140.230.000.18
YoY Growth--1.49%28.59%805.24%-26.98%-69.74%-60.00%-37.50%0.00%-100.00%52.37%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.83%0.59%0.07%0.11%0.39%0.79%0.95%0.00%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)28.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.425.893.53
Cash Retained (M)28.4828.4828.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.42-5.89-3.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.0622.6024.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.5897.5897.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.27$13.24$20.03
Upside / Downside-65.60%-50.84%-25.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.1150.1753.4356.9060.6064.5466.47
Payout Ratio39.53%49.63%59.72%69.81%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.6224.9031.9139.7248.4258.0861.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.4422.6522.87
Year 2 PV (M)25.9226.4226.92
Year 3 PV (M)29.0929.9330.78
Year 4 PV (M)31.9733.2034.46
Year 5 PV (M)34.5736.2437.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)530.55556.17582.78
Equity Value (M)674.54704.61735.77
Shares Outstanding (M)97.5897.5897.58
Fair Value$6.91$7.22$7.54
Upside / Downside-74.34%-73.20%-72.01%

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