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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.,Ltd. (300453.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.65 - $93.54$71.81
Multi-Stage$11.72 - $12.82$12.26
Blended Fair Value$42.03
Current Price$9.13
Upside360.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.26%28.57%0.250.110.110.100.050.040.030.030.030.00
YoY Growth--121.44%0.85%9.50%92.71%23.63%28.72%10.90%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.24%1.49%1.52%1.23%0.71%0.83%0.87%0.79%0.50%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)244.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.8930.5618.34
Cash Retained (M)134.27134.27134.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.89-30.56-18.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.38103.71115.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)519.77519.77519.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.65$71.81$93.54
Upside / Downside170.00%686.51%924.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)244.47260.36277.28295.31314.50334.94344.99
Payout Ratio45.08%54.06%63.05%72.03%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.20140.75174.82212.71254.79301.45319.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)130.18131.41132.64
Year 2 PV (M)149.53152.38155.25
Year 3 PV (M)168.27173.10178.02
Year 4 PV (M)186.41193.58200.95
Year 5 PV (M)203.97213.82224.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,253.215,506.945,770.39
Equity Value (M)6,091.576,371.236,661.31
Shares Outstanding (M)519.77519.77519.77
Fair Value$11.72$12.26$12.82
Upside / Downside28.37%34.26%40.37%

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