Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cscec Scimee Sci.&Tech. Co.,Ltd (300425.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.19 - $2.05$1.56
Multi-Stage$1.34 - $1.47$1.41
Blended Fair Value$1.48
Current Price$5.00
Upside-70.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.70%14.60%0.090.100.100.090.080.100.130.060.030.03
YoY Growth---8.38%2.41%9.40%3.91%-13.92%-22.48%121.76%120.37%-1.88%14.50%
Dividend Yield--1.79%2.21%2.01%1.70%1.80%2.18%2.22%1.06%0.36%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.517.824.69
Cash Retained (M)49.9049.9049.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.51-7.82-4.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.3942.0845.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)680.13680.13680.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Fair Value$1.19$1.56$2.05
Upside / Downside-76.17%-68.75%-58.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.5564.7567.0369.4071.8474.3776.60
Payout Ratio20.23%34.18%48.14%62.09%76.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.6522.1432.2743.0954.6366.9370.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Year 1 PV (M)20.1420.3320.53
Year 2 PV (M)26.7127.2327.76
Year 3 PV (M)32.4533.4134.38
Year 4 PV (M)37.4338.9140.44
Year 5 PV (M)41.7243.8045.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)754.53792.05831.05
Equity Value (M)912.97955.731,000.12
Shares Outstanding (M)680.13680.13680.13
Fair Value$1.34$1.41$1.47
Upside / Downside-73.15%-71.90%-70.59%

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