Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Pengling Group Co.,Ltd (300375.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.43 - $0.62$0.53
Multi-Stage$0.66 - $0.73$0.70
Blended Fair Value$0.61
Current Price$4.95
Upside-87.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.85%0.04%0.030.050.050.010.010.040.080.060.050.04
YoY Growth---30.00%0.85%721.77%-43.56%-74.89%-47.27%34.83%22.24%21.76%15.40%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.92%1.32%0.15%0.30%1.07%1.69%1.19%0.67%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.405.883.53
Cash Retained (M)47.0047.0047.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.40-5.88-3.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.6041.1343.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)758.65758.65758.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Fair Value$0.43$0.53$0.62
Upside / Downside-91.24%-89.38%-87.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.0146.5546.1145.6645.2244.7946.13
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.018.3816.6024.6632.5640.3142.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Year 1 PV (M)7.607.677.75
Year 2 PV (M)13.6313.9114.19
Year 3 PV (M)18.3418.9119.49
Year 4 PV (M)21.9522.8623.79
Year 5 PV (M)24.6225.9027.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)416.98438.68461.28
Equity Value (M)503.11527.93553.74
Shares Outstanding (M)758.65758.65758.65
Fair Value$0.66$0.70$0.73
Upside / Downside-86.60%-85.94%-85.25%

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