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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongji Innolight Co., Ltd. (300308.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$165.76 - $399.45$245.84
Multi-Stage$114.35 - $125.04$119.60
Blended Fair Value$182.72
Current Price$403.68
Upside-54.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.11%65.16%0.360.190.210.150.110.100.060.020.000.00
YoY Growth--93.04%-11.25%38.89%38.33%4.82%77.08%213.13%863.93%-32.46%21.29%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.16%0.50%0.67%0.43%0.27%0.20%0.05%0.01%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,550.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)603.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,947.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,710.151,068.84641.31
Cash Retained (M)7,947.727,947.727,947.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,710.15-1,068.84-641.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,237.576,878.887,306.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.581,112.581,112.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.616.186.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.616.186.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.156.727.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$165.76$245.84$399.45
Upside / Downside-58.94%-39.10%-1.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,550.769,106.569,698.4810,328.8911,000.2611,715.2812,066.74
Payout Ratio7.05%23.64%40.23%56.82%73.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)603.042,152.973,901.845,868.978,075.3510,543.7511,161.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,949.261,967.741,986.22
Year 2 PV (M)3,198.423,259.343,320.84
Year 3 PV (M)4,355.744,480.774,608.18
Year 4 PV (M)5,426.175,634.855,849.49
Year 5 PV (M)6,414.476,724.297,045.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,881.96110,996.09116,305.96
Equity Value (M)127,226.02133,063.09139,116.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,112.581,112.581,112.58
Fair Value$114.35$119.60$125.04
Upside / Downside-71.67%-70.37%-69.02%

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