Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sinocare Inc. (300298.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.07 - $101.38$41.52
Multi-Stage$11.20 - $12.24$11.71
Blended Fair Value$26.61
Current Price$19.93
Upside33.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.18%7.19%0.240.260.290.240.320.310.260.220.160.12
YoY Growth---9.10%-9.87%22.24%-25.86%3.23%21.39%16.73%34.29%32.51%3.63%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.24%0.91%1.28%1.04%2.10%1.90%1.09%1.28%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.3935.2421.15
Cash Retained (M)148.82148.82148.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.39-35.24-21.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.43113.58127.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)553.08553.08553.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.07$41.52$101.38
Upside / Downside0.68%108.32%408.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.95300.28319.80340.58362.72386.30397.89
Payout Ratio47.22%55.77%64.33%72.89%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.13167.48205.73248.24295.41347.67368.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.12155.58157.04
Year 2 PV (M)174.23177.54180.89
Year 3 PV (M)193.47199.02204.68
Year 4 PV (M)211.87220.02228.40
Year 5 PV (M)229.47240.55252.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,230.565,483.205,745.51
Equity Value (M)6,193.726,475.936,768.59
Shares Outstanding (M)553.08553.08553.08
Fair Value$11.20$11.71$12.24
Upside / Downside-43.81%-41.25%-38.60%

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