Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.,Ltd. (300260.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.03 - $85.03$39.77
Multi-Stage$9.49 - $10.39$9.93
Blended Fair Value$24.85
Current Price$45.66
Upside-45.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.36%23.42%0.150.160.120.120.100.150.100.030.020.03
YoY Growth---3.27%34.11%-4.13%15.71%-29.26%51.63%253.93%18.41%-11.33%43.01%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.57%0.31%0.40%1.41%1.79%1.28%0.33%0.27%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7121.6913.02
Cash Retained (M)135.61135.61135.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.71-21.69-13.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.90113.92122.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)405.88405.88405.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.03$39.77$85.03
Upside / Downside-60.52%-12.91%86.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.54184.82196.83209.63223.25237.76244.90
Payout Ratio21.86%35.49%49.11%62.74%76.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.9365.5896.67131.53170.50213.99226.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.4361.0161.58
Year 2 PV (M)82.0983.6585.23
Year 3 PV (M)102.91105.87108.88
Year 4 PV (M)122.93127.66132.52
Year 5 PV (M)142.17149.04156.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,343.163,504.633,672.29
Equity Value (M)3,853.704,031.864,216.67
Shares Outstanding (M)405.88405.88405.88
Fair Value$9.49$9.93$10.39
Upside / Downside-79.21%-78.24%-77.25%

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