Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CSG Smart Science&Technology Co.,Ltd. (300222.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.03 - $1.49$1.25
Multi-Stage$1.64 - $1.81$1.72
Blended Fair Value$1.49
Current Price$13.56
Upside-89.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.46%-5.77%0.020.020.030.050.060.170.130.060.050.02
YoY Growth---34.01%-34.44%-25.45%-15.13%-67.76%33.70%128.66%3.54%221.58%-38.56%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.35%0.44%0.62%0.73%2.26%1.69%0.74%0.71%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2713.928.35
Cash Retained (M)104.68104.68104.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.27-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.4090.7696.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.75778.75778.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.03$1.25$1.49
Upside / Downside-92.42%-90.77%-89.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.37110.26109.15108.06106.98105.91109.09
Payout Ratio6.01%22.81%39.61%56.40%73.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6925.1543.2360.9578.3195.32100.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22.8623.0923.32
Year 2 PV (M)35.7236.4537.19
Year 3 PV (M)45.7847.1948.64
Year 4 PV (M)53.4655.6857.96
Year 5 PV (M)59.1562.2365.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,061.111,116.361,173.89
Equity Value (M)1,278.081,341.011,406.45
Shares Outstanding (M)778.75778.75778.75
Fair Value$1.64$1.72$1.81
Upside / Downside-87.90%-87.30%-86.68%

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