Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hongli Zhihui Group Co.,Ltd. (300219.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.01 - $17.70$16.58
Multi-Stage$10.00 - $11.02$10.50
Blended Fair Value$13.54
Current Price$7.45
Upside81.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.39%29.68%0.140.050.040.020.020.330.090.050.040.02
YoY Growth--174.54%21.06%95.27%26.49%-94.72%272.85%85.24%18.72%113.95%76.76%
Dividend Yield--2.11%0.73%0.54%0.23%0.18%4.71%1.01%0.39%0.32%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.208.254.95
Cash Retained (M)33.3733.3733.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.20-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.1825.1328.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)712.50712.50712.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate-0.49%-0.49%-0.49%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$15.01$16.58$17.70
Upside / Downside101.45%122.51%137.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.9867.4969.0470.6272.2473.8976.11
Payout Ratio49.42%57.53%65.65%73.77%81.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.6138.8345.3252.0959.1566.5070.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.49%-0.49%-0.49%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)38.6439.0239.40
Year 2 PV (M)44.8845.7746.67
Year 3 PV (M)51.3352.8654.43
Year 4 PV (M)57.9960.3262.71
Year 5 PV (M)64.8868.1571.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,868.417,214.217,573.80
Equity Value (M)7,126.137,480.337,848.56
Shares Outstanding (M)712.50712.50712.50
Fair Value$10.00$10.50$11.02
Upside / Downside34.25%40.92%47.86%

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